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Dakota Aquifer Program--Geologic Framework--Stochastic Modeling

The future of the model

The stochastic, or probabilistic, nature of the modeling process provides us with several models. Currently, the geologist interprets these models, selecting those that are most likely. For each of these models, flow analysis can be conducted to determine the overall flow regimes within the aquifer.

Geologically, future work will concentrate on usage of paleocurrent, lithofacies, and geometric data to gain better controls on the 3D geometry and linear stacked behavior of elements. For example, paleocurrent and geometric data will be used for better calculation of sinuosity of channel elements. Also, subsurface work is being conducted to constrain the relative abundance of various elements and to further analyze element geometry, size and behavior.

There is, of course, refining work that needs to be conducted with the mathematical model. The sophistication of the probability generators will increase as more model runs are performed. The initialization step will also improve with the inclusion of subsurface (well log) data. Also, the stacking of consecutive layers is still being developed, and this will provide three-dimensional models that can be input into existing postprocessing programs.

There are also two significant improvements that are currently being developed:

We have provided preliminary studies of central Kansas outcrop data, and a prototype model which used the collected data. From here, we will proceed to incorporate fill possibilities into elements produced by the model. Packaging model outputs into paleovalleys will also be incorporated. As this study continues, the results will provide an accurate set of possible models of the Dakota aquifer.

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Kansas Geological Survey, Dakota Aquifer Program
Updated July 5, 1996.
Scientific comments to P. Allen Macfarlane
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The URL for this page is HTTP://www.kgs.ku.edu/Dakota/vol1/geo/stoch10.htm