After LoiczView was used to derive a ‘best prediction’ for Rzedowski’s
Potential Vegetation Distribution, the model was used to project ‘current’
potential vegetation distributions fifty years into the future under conditions
of global climate change. Similar to Classification 34, LoiczView
was used to produce a 12-cluster classification using elevation, and slope
at a .05-degree grid resolution and with the maximum scaled distance measure.
In contrast, projected maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation
were used instead of Conabio’s current maximum temperature, minimum temperature,
and precipitation (19-class). Two sets of projected climate data
were used, one set a conservative scenario for projected climate assumed
a 0.5% / annum CO2 increase and incorporated the negative forcing
from sulfate aerosols, and the other set a less conservative or more extreme
scenario for projected climate assumed a 1.0% / annum CO2 increase
and did not incorporate the negative forcing from sulfate aerosols (see
Projecting Potential Vegetation Distribution in Methods).
Figure 23: Change in Vegetation Distribution from Current to Projected
Conservative Climate Change Scenario.
Figure 24: Change in Vegetation Distribution from Current to Projected
Less-Conservative Climate Change Scenario
Table 16: Percent Shifts from Current to Projected Vegetation Distributions.